1) The post-Super League era begins at Wembley
Whether we’ll be able suspend our disbelief remains to be seen, but let’s assume and assess this first Super League derby like it’s a football match. Whenever late-career José Mourinho leaves a club, there’s a period during which we discover which players he was right about and which players he’d simply taken against; which players are better with his yoke removed, and which players are objectively good. The team Ryan Mason picked for the Southampton game gave us clues as to his preferences, with the starting roles handed to Toby Alderweireld and Gareth Bale particularly. Though both have seen better days, Alderweireld’s experience, leadership and nous will surely help a doddering defence – especially given Manchester City’s relative lack of pace in the middle of the pitch – while Bale combines a big-game record with the rare ability to score goals which cannot be prevented. Spurs may lose at Wembley nevertheless, but already there’s a sense that they’re back moving in a sensible direction. DH
2) Stones’ suspension may be well timed
Errors have been creeping back into John Stones’s game, from the mistake for England against Poland at Wembley that led to the visitors’ equaliser, to his early blunder that handed Aston Villa a first-minute lead in the Premier League encounter on Wednesday. The ill-judged and dangerous tackle that saw him sent off later in the match was further evidence that the defender might benefit from a break, and now he will get one in the form of a three-match suspension. Pep Guardiola would naturally have liked a full complement of players to select from. But from Stones’s point of view, a chance to rest his body and mind, and a couple of weeks out of the harsh glare of the season’s run-in, may be just what the doctor ordered. LM
3) Gunners short of firepower against Everton
For the first time this season, Arsenal are expected to have neither Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang nor Alexandre Lacazette in their matchday squad, with Aubameyang still recovering from malaria and Lacazette nursing a strained hamstring. The only other league game they have started with neither player in their side was at Goodison Park in December, when Eddie Nketiah started up front and Willian and Nicolas Pépé played either side of him. It was not entirely unsuccessful – Arsenal had more possession, and more shots on goal – but they lost 2-1 and at that stage sat 15th in the table, 12 points behind their opponents. They have since closed that gap to three, albeit with Everton holding a game in hand, and the teams would be level for the first time since the opening weekend should they win. “It’s a really important game, not decisive, but really important,” said Carlo Ancelotti. SB
4) It could be a slow burner at Anfield
Newcastle have only scored two first-half goals away from home this season (and they were in games they lost 3-1 and 5-2). This is an astonishingly hopeless record, twice as bad as the next most useless team (Sheffield United, inevitably), and 20% of the average number scored by the other 19 Premier League clubs this season. Fully 85% of their away goals this season have come in the second half. If all away matches this season had ended at half-time, Newcastle would be bottom of the away table with nine points. If they had started at half-time, they would be 13th, just two points behind Spurs. For their part, Liverpool scored at least one goal in the first half of each of their first eight league games at Anfield this season, but have not scored any at all in their last eight. In short, don’t worry if you miss kick-off in this lunchtime game. SB
5) Bielsa cannot play into Solskjær’s hands again
After Leeds were thrashed at Old Trafford earlier in the season, Marcelo Bielsa noted: “We created 11 chances at goal, scoring two. Manchester United created eight chances at goal and scored six. They needed 14 chances to score six goals, we needed 13 to score two.” That Leeds attacked well in that game is a point worth making – it did not look like your archetypal 6-2. But Bielsa also said that “there was no clear dominance in the game,” which is a less wise appraisal of events. The pattern of play reflected Manchester United scoring twice in the first three minutes, and the margin of victory reflected their superiority. The question this time is whether Bielsa will vary an approach whose weaknesses – space in behind, gaps in the middle of the pitch – fit perfectly United’s strengths, and whether Ole Gunnar Solskjær assumes the same thing will work again, or comes up with a different plan. DH
6) Chelsea head to Hammers’ unlikely fortress
West Ham have the division’s second-best home record this season, taking 31 points from their 16 games and losing only to Liverpool and Manchester United since the opening-day aberration against Newcastle. But since Frank Lampard’s departure Chelsea’s record away from home (W4 D2) is better than West Ham’s at home (W4 D1 L1). So long as West Ham recover from the excitement of briefly glimpsing a potential future without the big six, in which they and Leicester would be engaged in a thrilling title race, this is anyone’s game. The Hammers will be without the suspended Craig Dawson – he has played 16 complete matches this season, from which they have 36 points; in the other 16 games, they have taken 22. SB
7) Watkins aiming to continue rise at Euro 2020
Aston Villa’s faint hopes of European qualification faded further after the 2-1 defeat by Manchester City on Wednesday, but Ollie Watkins still has plenty to play for in the remainder of the season beyond prize money and pride. He scored his first England goal against San Marino last month – not bad for a forward who was turning out for non-league Weston-super-Mare six years ago – and a place in Gareth Southgate’s squad for Euro 2020 would complete a meteoric rise for the 25-year-old. While goals alone will not guarantee Watkins a place in the squad, one or two against lowly neighbours West Brom would hardly hurt his mission to convince Southgate. LM
Football Weekly Extra
Super League: what happens now?
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8) Brighton seek cutting edge against Blades
It’s unlikely Graham Potter will admit it, but his team are safe for another season which makes this a decent time to evaluate how they’ve performed this. Brighton have played well enough to have more points than they do, but whichever way you look at it, 33 goals in 32 games is a meagre return for any team, never mind one sent out to attack, as his is. Potter has tried various attacking configurations and personnel without success, so perhaps it’s time to go for weight of numbers against opponents who are already relegated and have lost six games in a row. Yves Bissouma is more than good enough to patrol the area in front of the back four, so Potter could try two creative players alongside him in midfield – Adam Lallana and Alexis Mac Allister, say – with Danny Welbeck, Leandro Trossard and Neal Maupay given licence to roam in front of them. If not now, when? DH
9) More attacking endeavour at Molineux?
There are strong end-of-an-era vibes at Wolves, not just this season but going back to the Covid-19 break a year ago. That is not the only reason for this season’s drop in performance – any team lucky enough to have Raúl Jiménez would find things harder without him. The bottom three aside, only Sunday’s visitors Burnley have scored fewer than Wolves’ 32 goals in 32 games. When you consider players as talented as Rúben Neves, Adama Traoré, Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence, that constitutes monumental failure. Over the last few months, there have been signs that Nuno Espírito Santo is inculcating a more attacking approach, and against Burnley he’s going to need it because Sean Dyche’s men will not oblige them by inviting the counter. That said, Burnley have been pressing higher of late and were impressive in a late loss at Old Trafford last weekend, so perhaps this game will be an unexpected goalfest. Or perhaps not. DH
10) Hodgson has little to prove but needs a win
Roy Hodgson has been around the block a few times – his long, varied managerial career began back in 1976 – but like everyone else he was still taken aback at the Super League plot which surfaced last Sunday before sinking in the space of two days. “I’ve been as shocked as everybody within the game of football,” Hodgson said. It would no doubt have saddened the former England manager to see the sport take such an avaricious turn at this stage of his career. As for his own future, Hodgson has understandably grown tired of fielding questions about retirement, and is focused purely on a strong finish to the season for Crystal Palace. Even if the Eagles are surely safe from relegation, there is a sense the team is being allowed to drift. Palace have won just once in two months, and victory at Leicester would be a timely reminder of Hodgson’s evergreen qualities as a tactician and a motivator. LM
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