It has been a strange season. Manchester City were eighth on Christmas Day but went on to win the title by eight points. Manchester United lost six games at Old Trafford but remained unbeaten on the road. Liverpool didn’t taste defeat at Anfield for years but then proceeded to lose six games straight at their ground. Leicester spent more days in the top four than any other club but then finished fifth. And Arsenal ended the season with five wins in a row but still finished below Tottenham, who had a disappointing campaign despite having the player who both scored and set up more goals than any other in the league. Who could have predicted any of this? Not us, that’s for sure.
Pandemic football is not easy to predict. That’s our excuse and we are sticking to it. As you might notice below, we were not entirely successful in our pre-season predictions. But we were right about Brighton.
Manchester City: predicted 2nd, finished 1st
What we said before the season: Kevin De Bruyne is the standout player (unless Lionel Messi arrives, of course) but how the “Stockport Iniesta” Phil Foden fares will have greater impact on the fortunes of a team left with a David Silva-sized hole after the Spaniard’s departure. Bet on the 20-year-old to go impressively.
What actually happened: Foden and De Bruyne were excellent, as foreseen, but Manchester City’s various successes this season – winning the Premier League and League Cup, as well as reaching the Champions League final for the first time in their history – was built upon their defence, especially the performances of player of the season Rúben Dias.
Manchester United: predicted 4th, finished 2nd
What we said before the season: Can United really better last season’s third position? This is what has to be achieved in 2020-21 for Ole Gunnar Solskjær to be able to point to his team’s trajectory remaining on the up following the rise from sixth in 2018-19. Yet, to do so, United must surely somehow finish ahead of one of Liverpool – who were 33 points their superior last season – and Manchester City, who were 15.
What actually happened: A positive season. Having finished 33 points behind Liverpool last season, United finished five points above them this time around, easing their way to second. They won more points from losing positions than any other side in the division and became only the fourth side in the history of the top flight to go unbeaten away from home for an entire campaign, following in the footsteps of Preston in 1888-89, and Arsenal in 2001-02 and 2003-04. Solskjær can make a productive season a special one on Wednesday night, when United face Villarreal in the Europa League final in Gdańsk.
Liverpool: predicted 1st, finished 3rd
What we said before the season: Liverpool are not in desperate need of additions, clearly, and Jürgen Klopp warned from the outset the pandemic would affect his spending, as the aborted move for Timo Werner confirmed. But there is a need to freshen up and inject new competition into a squad relatively unchanged for almost three years.
What actually happened: Liverpool were four points clear at the top of the table on Christmas Day and looked likely to retain their title, but they fell apart completely in the new year, losing six straight league games at Anfield for the first time in their history. “They’ve been bad champions,” said Roy Keane after their chastening 4-1 defeat at home to Manchester City in February. Perhaps the former Manchester United captain spoke too soon. Liverpool rallied, winning their last five games of the season to finish third.
Chelsea: predicted 3rd, finished 4th
What we said before the season: Although they have made impressive strides under Frank Lampard, it is unlikely they will be strong enough defensively to challenge for the title this season. Inconsistency remains an issue and, given Lampard is still learning his trade as a manager, there are bound to be a few more stumbles from this entertaining but erratic side.
What actually happened: Chelsea had a strange season, first under Lampard and then under Thomas Tuchel. They were strong at the back, with the second best defensive record in the division after City, yet they struggled for goals, with Jorginho’s seven penalties enough to make him their top scorer. They lost an FA Cup final, scraped into the top four due to Leicester’s collapse and could still be crowned champions of Europe.
Leicester City: predicted 7th, finished 5th
What we said before the season: Leicester have a splendid team that can get even better. But, with others improving, they could go backwards if they do not adequately address shortcomings that led to last season’s weird anticlimax.
What actually happened: Leicester suffered another weird anticlimax in the league. Having spent more days in the top four than any other side, they finished fifth and missed out on Champions League football. Yet, when their fans reminisce about this season in years to come, they will remember the day they won the FA Cup for the first time in their history – a much bigger achievement than earning a few quid in Europe.
West Ham: predicted 14th, finished 6th
What we said before the season: The club are in crisis mode before a ball has been kicked as they continue to pay the price for poor transfer decisions.
What actually happened: West Ham made fools of our predictions by finishing sixth in the table, their highest position since the 1998-99 season – when Ian Wright was their top goalscorer – and enough to give them a place in the Europa League. In an even bigger surprise, Jesse Lingard was instrumental in that success. He scored more goals for West Ham in the first nine games of his loan spell than any Chelsea player managed all season. As we were saying, pandemic football is hard to predict.
Tottenham Hotspur: predicted 6th, finished 7th
What we said before the season: It feels as if José Mourinho’s tenure is truly about to begin. To be considered a success, he needs to win a trophy. This is why Daniel Levy hired him. Because he wins. And how Spurs crave silverware, having won only one FA Cup and two League Cups in the past 35 years.
What actually happened: Mourinho guided Spurs to the League Cup final but was sacked six days before the game, which they lost under the guidance of Ryan Mason,a 29-year-old who had zero managerial experience. The club is now a bit of a shambles. Harry Kane had a sensational season, scoring and setting up more goals than any other player in the league, but he wants to leave – so he can win a trophy.
Arsenal: predicted 5th, finished 8th
What we said before the season: The vision and clarity shown during Arteta’s first eight months are tantalising. If he is for real, as seems increasingly certain, the possibilities begin to appear limitless.
What actually happened: Arsenal threatened to join the elite when they signed up for the European Super League but, other than that, they were bang average. Despite winning their last five games of the season they did not even finish above Spurs. They have failed to qualify for Europe for the first time in 25 years. Is Arteta the real deal? The jury is still very much out on that one.
Leeds United: predicted 10th, finished 9th
What we said before the season: Leeds are shrouded in considerable uncertainty. There’s plenty of excitement, giddy optimism even, but it is impossible to predict what will happen when Marcelo Bielsa is perched back on his blue technical area bucket and his team cross the white line. Will they emulate the audaciously upward trajectory Sheffield United took last season? Or might Norwich’s gallant struggles be a more realistic template? Yes, in Bielsa, Leeds possess one of the world’s foremost tactical brains but his squad do not mirror their manager’s brilliance.
What actually happened: Bielsa’s squad matched his brilliance. Leeds finished the season with 59 points, the highest return for a promoted club since Ipswich picked up 66 in the 2000-01 season. More importantly, they entertained us in every match they played.
Everton: predicted 9th, finished 10th
What we said before the season: Yet another rebuild is required for Everton, who were bereft of quality, effort and character in their final game of last season. There is a glaring lack of goals in the team and they need a new goalkeeper to challenge Jordan Pickford.
What actually happened: A season of frustration. Having flirted with a top-four finish around Christmas, Everton were beaten 5-0 on the last day of the campaign, showing a lack of quality, effort and character. Dominic Calvert-Lewin helped with the glaring lack of goals but his dip in form in the second half of the campaign was typical of the team’s overall malaise.
Aston Villa: predicted 15th, finished 11th
What we said before the season: Dean Smith and co will be hopeful of avoiding a relegation scrap this time around but reinforcements are required.
What actually happened: Villa were a far better team this season, staying well clear of the relegation battle and picking up 20 more points than in 2019-20. They were not as reliant on Jack Grealish and look like they could push on again next season. Oh, and they beat the reigning champions 7-2 on a wonderfully mad Sunday evening in October.
Newcastle: predicted 17th, finished 12th
What we said before the season: The gloriously maverick French winger Allan Saint-Maximin is the player who switches the lights on at St James’ Park, consistently raising the game of those around him. He is virtually impossible for opponents to second guess – a lot of the time “Saint-Max” himself is probably not quite sure what audacious manoeuvre he is about to perform.
What actually happened: Allan Saint-Maximin struggled for fitness at various points in the season and Newcastle struggled for form, with Steve Bruce clinging on to his job at various points. Having dropped perilously close to the relegation zone, they won three of their last four games and somehow finished 12th.
Wolves: predicted 8th, finished 13th
What we said before the season: Not having to combine domestic duties with a European campaign could make this the season where Wolves make their strongest push yet for a top-four finish and a cup – so long as they are spared serious injuries to players for whom they do not have obvious deputies.
What actually happened: It was a season to forget for Wolves. Sadly, they were not spared serious injuries, with Raúl Jiménez and Jonny missing a hefty chunk of the campaign. Wolves will have to start afresh next season and do so without their popular manager Nuno Espírito Santo, who is moving on after four years with the club.
Crystal Palace: predicted 18th, finished 14th
What we said before the season: While everything in the garden appears rosy given Palace ended the season well clear of relegation again, there is a growing anxiety among some fans over what the future may bring.
What actually happened: The anxiety continues. Palace stayed well clear of the relegation battle again but they finished the season with the oldest squad in the league and with their manager – also the oldest in the league – saying goodbye. With so many players out of contract, this will be a pivotal summer for the club.
Southampton: predicted 12th, finished 15th
What we said before the season: It is perhaps premature to ponder how high Southampton can soar under Ralph Hasenhüttl but, given how he hauled them off the canvas and the green shoots towards the end of last season, the sense is there is significant headroom for them to flourish.
What actually happened: It was a season of two halves for Southampton. They looked likely to qualify for Europe when they beat Liverpool in January, but that was to be the peak of their season. They lost their next six games – including a 9-0 thrashing at Manchester United – and slid down the table.
Brighton: predicted 16th, finished 16th
What we said before the season: Graham Potter goes into his second season with a squad that looks capable of making the next step. Surpassing 13th would make club history.
What actually happened: It’s almost boring to say so at this stage but Brighton played lots of pretty football without scoring many goals. They were fifth in the expected goals table – above Leicester, Arsenal, West Ham and Tottenham – but could not convert enough of those chances to finish higher up the table that really matters.
Burnley: predicted 13th, finished 17th
What we said before the season: Even though this will be Burnley’s fifth consecutive Premier League season no one can take anything for granted with such a small squad and a limited budget, least of all Sean Dyche, who has repeatedly claimed his side are not yet an established top-flight club. Most people around the club would be happy to accept another comfortable mid-table finish, though, as Dyche knows better than anyone, it is no easy task laying claim to be the 10th best side in the country.
What actually happened: Having finished in the top half of the table last time out, this season must go down as a disappointment for Burnley fans. But at least they survived, which did not seem a given when they started the season with a run of seven games without a win. They will hope to do better next season when their fans return to Turf Moor.
Fulham: predicted 19th, finished 18th
What we said before the season: Fulham are back in the big time, but Scott Parker will want a level-headed approach. The 39-year-old is not seeking to make drastic changes. He does not want more disharmony. Neither can he carry any passengers. He needs a team willing to dig in and work hard. Fulham are still capable of passing sweetly but they need to snarl as well.
What actually happened: There was not enough snarl. After a terrible start – they lost their first four games – Fulham gradually found their feet but they did not win enough games. Their run of five straight draws around Christmas was particularly frustrating for fans as it showed the team’s potential while also illustrating their lack of a killer punch. They only scored nine goals in their 19 home matches, a new Premier League record and a sad indictment of their strikers, especially Aleksandar Mitrovic, who scored just three goals in 27 appearances.
West Brom: predicted 20th, finished 19th
What we said before the season: Adjusting to the top flight will be an unenviable task for a team immediately dwarfed by the resources of Premier League rivals. Slaven Bilic has been here before and knows West Brom need to improve in both boxes to have any chance of staying up.
What actually happened: Bilic might have known what was required but he could not bring it about – and neither could his replacement, Sam Allardyce. West Brom were relegated with a whimper. Matheus Pereira looked great though, so expect him to leave the club this summer.
Sheffield United: predicted 11th, finished 20th
What we said before the season: Chris Wilder will not entertain talk of Second Season Syndrome – and with good reason given the Blades’ blend of solidity and style. Heck, who is to say that the Blades will not emulate the Leicester class of 2015-16 by winning the title in their second season back in the top flight?
What actually happened: Sheffield United did not win the league. They did not even win a game until January. They were preposterously bad, picking up only two points from their first 17 games of the season and effectively relegating themselves before the turn of the year. It reached the stage where they were not really competing with their contemporaries but were instead involved in a private battle with the Derby County team of 2007-08, the benchmark by which all dire Premier League sides must be measured. They saved some face in the second half of the season though, winning seven games and pulling away from those unflattering comparisons with Derby.
from Football | The Guardian https://ift.tt/3ffB7OK
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