Manchester City’s decline from their incredible peak two years ago has been building for some time. It continued on Tuesday as they only managed a 1-1 draw at home to strugglers West Brom, who have subsequently become the first Premier League club to sack their manager this season.
Pep Guardiola’s side have now dropped 16 points in the league this season, more than the entire 2017-18 campaign (14) and as many as in 2018-19. This is a unique, unusual year, but to have dropped so many points before Christmas, in a delayed season, only reinforces suggestions City are no longer the outstanding force they once were.
City were eventually denied three points against West Brom courtesy of two wonderful Sam Johnstone saves at the death, but the fact it took until the dying minutes for the home side to seriously threaten a team in the relegation zone was staggering. As City showed for Ilkay Gundogan’s goal, they are still capable of getting players to the byline with intricate one-touch football, but they are not managing it with nearly as much frequency as before. City average just 0.75 attempted pull-backs in the league this season, down from 1.42 in 2017-18 and 2018-19.
City did not manage a single attempt in the first 20 minutes against West Brom and were fortunate not to fall behind early on. They eventually ended the match with 26 shots (seven on target) to West Brom’s five (one on target), but that does not paint a full picture of the game. Rodri had as many attempts as Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling combined (four). Sergio Agüero was only on the pitch 14 minutes yet he had just one fewer touch in West Brom’s penalty area than Jesus managed in the full game (five). Nine of City’s attempts were speculative long-range efforts. Clearly, something is not right at the top end of the pitch.
This was not a one-off. City have only scored more than goal in only five of their 12 league matches this season, as many times as Newcastle. They are only scoring from 9.3% of their shots, which puts them in the bottom half of the table for shot conversion rate. Across the previous three Premier League campaigns, City had the best shot conversion rate in the league (14.1%). They have created the second most clear-cut chances in the Premier League this season (25) but have only converted nine of those. City have only scored 18 goals in their 12 league games so far this season; Aston Villa have scored 21 even though they have played two games fewer.
Another striking development this season has been Guardiola’s increasingly risk-averse approach in matches. He has led the call for Premier League clubs to follow other major European leagues and allow five substitutions, but he has only used his current allocation of three in just one of City’s last seven league matches. In fact, against Fulham earlier this month Guardiola opted against making a single substitution for the first time in his managerial career, even though they took a 2-0 lead within 30 minutes.
Needing a goal against West Brom, Guardiola waited until the 75th minute before calling on Agüero from the bench. He replaced Benjamin Mendy with Kyle Walker in a like-for-like replacement, presumably to guard against the counterattack. Bear in mind that five minutes earlier West Brom chucked on Charlie Austin for Karlan Grant; the Baggies had no counter-attacking threat. Guardiola opted to leave Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva and Ferran Torres on the bench.
It is entirely possible that Guardiola has realised his usual style of football is not suitable to this unique season and is being more pragmatic with his approach, though the fact he is not using all of his available substitutes suggests he is not overly concerned by the intense workload on his players.
The one positive for Guardiola is that City have put together an impressive run at the back. Prior to West Brom’s equaliser, which was flying wide before it diverted in off Ruben Dias’ boot, City had gone more than 10 hours without conceding a goal – their best run in almost two years. Even West Brom’s earlier chance was from a fortunate deflection into the path of Grant.
Only Tottenham have conceded fewer goals (10) than City in the league this season (12) and half of City’s came in one match. Bruised by a 5-2 defeat to Leicester back in September – the heaviest of Guardiola’s managerial career – City have really tightened up since then. In fact, City are conceding the fewest shots per game in the division this season (7.8).
In that time, Aymeric Laporte has dropped completely down the pecking order and John Stones has returned to favour. In 616 minutes of action across the Premier League and Champions League this season, City have conceded just one goal with Stones on the pitch. Only recently, Laporte was thought of as the best centre-back in the league behind Virgil van Dijk but now finds himself as third or fourth choice at City. Even Eric García, who wants to leave, seems to be in front of him. Laporte’s demotion feeds into another pertinent issue for Guardiola this season. Worryingly, a lot of the City squad are completely out of form.
Rodri has not convinced in the Fernandinho role; Bernardo Silva is not the same player he was in 2018-19; Mendy still has fitness problems and Sterling has regressed. The absence of Agüero, one of the most ruthless goalscorers in Premier League history, has also hurt City over the last six weeks, yet it is difficult to sympathise with City for that. Recent history has shown that Agüero will always spend large spells out injured.
Guardiola launched a staunch defence of Jesus at the weekend, but the Brazilian clearly is not capable of being a first-choice striker at a club like City. He has only scored two goals in seven league games this season and has managed fewer touches in the opposition penalty area than Liverpool left-back Andrew Robertson.
City’s issues in attack date back to Leroy Sané’s injury and eventual departure over the summer. Across City’s title-winning seasons in 2018 and 2019, Sané reached double figures for both goals and assists in back-to-back seasons – the only player to do so in the Premier League in that period. Only Agüero (every 79.4 minutes), Mo Salah (85.8 mins) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (92.4 mins) played a direct hand in a goal more frequently than Sané (95.3 mins) in that period. The Germany international was only 23 at that time. Sané offered electric pace and directness, and he worked perfectly in unison with both Sterling and Agüero. Again, Guardiola must take part of the blame. He could have worked harder to keep the former PFA young player of the year.
We are in uncharted territory as far as Guardiola is concerned. It will be fascinating to see how he rallies his players. Into his fourth season at City, Guardiola has never previously remained in one job for so long. Some of his former players have admitted that working with Guardiola led them to burnout. It is a thoroughly rewarding process but can eventually take its toll. Are there too many issues for Guardiola to fix? It seems unthinkable that this slump will continue for much longer, but 2020 has been full of surprises.
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